Is Electrification Really The Future?

It is a little known fact that cars were on the road in the late 1800’s, way before Henry Ford came up with the first car produced on the moving assembly line, the Ford Model T. While steam power was the way to go in trains throughout the 1700’s, the technology did not catch up to automobiles until the 1800’s. Steam was impractical. Steam engines needed as long as 45 minutes to start up in cold weather and they needed to be refilled with water. Jay Leno, car enthusiast and comedian, is also a car collector. In fact, he owns a large collection of historical steam powered vehicles.

We keep talking about electrification and the future of the automotive industry. You may be surprised to learn that electric cars accounted for approximately 33% of all vehicles on the road in the early 1900’s. Let’s go over the past before we discuss the future of electrification.

The First Internal Combustion Engine Car

The Internal Combustion Engine, or ICE, was developed by German engineer Karl Benz in 1885. He created the first gasoline powered vehicle. If the name sounds familiar to you, that is because Karl Benz is the founder of Mercedes-Benz. The company started in 1883 with the name Benz & Co., first producing stationary engines before making their first car, the three-wheeled Motorwagen. The Motorwagen reached 8mph during its first test drive in 1985. One year later, it went on sale. It was driven on a 66 mile road trip to show the world that it can be used for family trips. By 1893, Benz produced 1200 Benz Velos vehicles, making it the worlds first mass produced car.

The First Electric Car

In 1890, a U.S. chemist named William Morrison invested the first successful electric vehicle, capable of reaching 14mph. This was shortly after gasoline cars were introduced.

In the early 1900’s, electric cars made up nearly 33% of all vehicles on the road. Today, electric cars account for 7.2% of global car sales.

General Motors (GM) developed the first “modern” production electric car in 1990 with the EV1. The unsuccessful EV1 quickly went out of production. If you would like to learn more, check out the 2006 documentary, “Who Killed the Electric Car?”.

The First Hydrogen Car

The first production hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, the GM Electrovan, was created in 1966. However it wasn’t until 2008 that Honda was able to figure out how to mass produce a practical hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with the Honda FCX Clarity. Today, the Honda Clarity is a hybrid hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with only 1 direct competitor, the hydrogen fuel cell-powered Toyota Mirai.

The History of Electrification

Back in the day, steam and gasoline powered vehicles had their faults. They were loud and required more work to operate. For example, the gas-powered cars required a hand crank to start the engine and gears to shift the transmission. Electric cars were very popular among the masses, especially women. In fact, Ferdinand Porsche developed an electric car called the P1 and HE CREATED THE FIRST GAS-ELECTRIC HYBRID VEHICLE. That is right!. Ferdinand Porsche, who founded the sports car company Porsche, created the first hybrid. Today, Porsche offers the hybrid Cayenne, Porsche 918 hyper car, and the fully electric Taycan.

Thomas Edison, inventor of the incadescent lightbulb, pushed for the electrification of vehicles. In 1914, Thomas Edison and Henry Ford worked together to evaluate building more efficient electric vehicles. This is ironic because it was Henry Ford’s Model T that killed the electric car in the early 1900’s. The Model T was cheap, practical, and reliable for it’s time. It wasn’t just Henry Ford that killed the electric car. Oil was cheap, American highways were being developed. Gas stations were popping up everywhere. Many American’s still did not have access to electricity. By 1935, the electric car was gone.

Hybridization

Due to the oil crisis, congress passed the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration Act of 1976, authorizing the Energy Department to support the R&D in electric and hybrid vehicles. As I mentioned earlier, it was Ferdinand Porsche who created the first gas-electric hybrid. For some reason, the concept didn’t stick until new hybrids were created 100 years later. In 1997, Toyota created their first hybrid, the Prius. In 1999, Honda was the first to offer a hybrid in the United States, the Honda Insight. To this day, the 1999-2006 Honda Insight is still the most fuel efficient vehicle ever offered in North America easily reaching 66 miles per gallon highway. Shortly after, we saw the birth of the hybrid Camry, hybrid RAV-4, hybrid Accord, hybrid Civic, hybrid CRV, hybrid Kia Niro, and hybrid Porsche Cayenne among others.

The birth of the Holy trinity of hybrid hyper cars, the Ferrari La Ferrari, Porsche 918, and McLaren P1, brought huge excitement into the world of Hybrids. There are now several hybrids to choose from, BUT not all car companies offer hybrids. Why? Why are many car companies telling us that they plan to go fully electric by 2035 when they haven’t even fully embraced hybrid powertrains?

Enter Tesla

Tesla Motors was founded in 2003. It is ironic that Tesla was named after Nikola Tesla when it was Thomas Edison who advocated for electric vehicles 100 years earlier. In 2004, Elon Musk made a large investment in Tesla and became the largest stakeholder in the company. By 2008, the Tesla Roadster was introduced. Being that the Roadster was a small impractical electric sports car with little options for charging, the sales were dismal. It wasn’t until Tesla came up with the first premium electric car, the 2012 Model S, along with the development of a charging network, that the case for electric vehicles started to make sense. Keep in mind that the Model S was introduced 2 years after the electric Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf, and 3 years after the electric Mitsubishi i-MiEV.

Tesla’s charging network ignited interest in electrical vehicles. Honda made the electric Fit, a California only model. GM came out with the Chevy Chevy Bolt. Hyundai-Kia came out with the fully electric Hyundai Kona EV, Hyundai IONIQ 5, Kia Niro EV, and Kia EV6. Mercedes-Benz officially stopped developing their gasoline powered engines and started to release fully electric cars like the EQS. Audi has been investing heavily in their e-Tron line of electric vehicles.

The Resistance & The Development of New Technologies

There are many rumors going around that electric cars are not particularly more expensive to produce. Some believe that automakers are purposely charging more on their electric cars to keep people interested in gasoline powered cars. Here are a few companies that seem to be focusing their efforts on keeping the ICE car alive.

Toyota and Honda

While Toyota, with partnership from Subaru, is releasing their first fully electric crossover later this year, they have also recently launched the Toyota Mirai, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Honda and Toyota have more hybrids than any other manufacturer. Both have created at least one production electric vehicle. Toyota has plans to release more fully electric vehicles. Why are both manufacturers still working on hydrogen fuel cell technology? Do they know something we don’t?

Nissan and Subaru

Nissan and Subaru are using CVT and turbocharged powertrains to improve efficiency. While Nissan created the electric Leaf in 2010, they have not created new electric models in the past 12 years. Neither Subaru or Nissan have come up with their own hybrid technology or any new electric cars of their own. Subaru is using Toyota’s new SUV as a platform for their upcoming electric SUV and there are rumors that the next Nissan GTR will be electric, but it’s just a rumor.

Mazda

For years, Mazda has been resisting hybrid, CVT, and electrification technology. Instead, they have been developing the internal combustion engine. In recent years, Mazda patented a new engine technology. They were able to control the timing of sparks in the combustion chamber to create their new spark ignition controlled engines. These new Mazda engines provide the power and fuel efficiency of a Diesel engine with the cleanliness of a gas engine. Mazda is also working on developing more efficient rotary engines. In 2021, Mazda came out with their first electric car, the MX-30. It was obvious that Mazda did not care about their own electric car, releasing it in limited markets with dismal power and charging figures. You would expect a new electric car to be as good or better than current offerings, but Mazda disappointed with the MX-30.

Porsche

Porsche has both hybrid and electric vehicles, but they have invested heavily in creating synthetic fuels. In fact, they have already made a synthetic fuel that is cleaner and more efficient than gasoline, thought it is still expensive to produce. It is obvious that Porsche wants to keep the internal combustion engine alive in their 911 line of sports cars.

Astron Aerospace

Astron Aerospace has come up with a very small 160HP engine weighing just 35 lbs. As small as some electric motors, this little fuel efficient engine makes electrification less certain. Astron Aerospace is not the only company that is still developing engines. Big names like Lamborghini, Ferrari, and Porsche continue to develop new engine technologies to further push the envelope.

United States Postal Service

After a bajillion years, the USPS or United States Postal Service finally decided to upgrade their fleet of delivery vans. Several electrical van/truck manufactures entered their bids for the contract. The USPS surprisingly awarded their contract to a company offering gas-powered delivery vehicles. This was AFTER Amazon announced that they will be converting their delivery van fleet to electric vehicles.

The Push for Electrification

Today, it seems that every country (except Italy) and politician is pushing for electrification with many implementing regulations that would make gasoline powered cars obsolete by 2030. I mentioned Italy because of Ferrari and Lamborghini. You may have heard that U.S. related supply chain issues have stemmed from not having enough truck drivers. The real reason is that California only allows unionized truckers (most truckers are not unionized) and newer trucks to work the docks while having a law that all trucks must be electric by 2050. No one wants to invest in new trucks if they will be obsolete in 28 years. Truckers want their trucks on the road for as long as possible.

With all of these new regulations, automakers are struggling to create electric vehicles fast enough to meet the 2024-2035 deadlines, depending on the market. Even worse, the charging infrastructure cannot keep up with the pace of automakers. I foresee the cost of used gasoline vehicles going up in value when no one is able to charge their car. This is one of the problems that Joe Biden’s Infrastructure Bill aims to solve, but it won’t be enough.

If You Can’t Beat Them, Join Them!

Shell, the major oil company, has recently converted a gas station into an electric car charging station, the first dedicated electric charging station in the United States. Shell’s station contains nine fast chargers, solar panels, a cafe, a restaurant, and a mini supermarket to keep electric car drivers busy as they wait 15-30 minutes for a charge. I expect more old gas stations to be converted into electric charging stations over the next 3 years.

ABB is a huge global company that specializes in Power and Automation. Their process automation division serves the oil and gas industry while their Electrification Division serves the energy grid and the overall storage and transfer of energy. In recent years, their oil and gas side of the business has suffered. ABB has shifted more focus and resources on their Electrification business with car chargers, more robust electrical grids to handle the charging infrastructure, and more. Competing companies like Siemens and GE are following suit.

New car companies are extremely rare because of the start up cost and resources required. Scion, the last ICE-based brand, was founded by Toyota in the same year as Tesla, 2003. Ever since then, every new U.S. car manufacturer was a fully electric car manufacturer. I’m thinking Rivian and Lucid.

Here Is What I Think

I do believe electric cars are the future, but I don’t believe they are our only future. I think ICE cars will still be produced because I don’t think it is possible to keep up with demand. When the 2030 +/- 5 year regulations take place, we will quickly find out that we don’t have enough resources on our little blue planet to make electric cars for the entire population of drivers. While electric cars may eventually account for 50% of all new vehicles on the road, I believe the next 30 years will still be filled with a mix of gasoline powered cars, hydrogen fuel cell-powered cars, electric cars, hybrid cars, and synthetic fuel-powered cars. The only energy source I believe will die is Diesel fuel.